Modelling extreme rainfall and floods: sharing perspectives of extreme value theory and climate science


23 - 25 November, 2021


Online - virtual

We are pleased to present this inter-disciplinary workshop between extreme value theorists and climate scientists, centered around the tools needed to understand extreme rainfall and major flood events, such as those that occurred in New South Wales in March 2021.

The workshop will be spread over three half-days from the 23rd to 25th of November 2021, including an evening session on the first day for our European plenaries, Phillipe Naveau and Jenny Wadsworth, and a morning session on the second day for our American plenaries, Mark Risser and Christina Patricola. 

In this workshop, we will split our climate and statistical participants across the four break out groups: 

  1. Modelling Flash flooding versus Fluvial Flooding  
  2. Factors contributing to the severity of flood events  
  3. Attributing flood events
  4. Non-stationarity in flood modelling 

We are hoping these breakout discussions will help identify where the climate and statistics communities need to come together to tackle the challenges for modelling extreme rainfall and floods. As participants come from the climate and statistics communities across the university sector, as well as CSIRO, BoM and NIWA, we expect a wide range perspectives and engaging conversation.  

Workshop Timeline 

* Note: Times are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT)

Day 1: 23rd November (Afternoon)  

  • 2:00 – 2:15 pm: Opening address - Acknowledgment to country 
  • 2:15 – 3:00 pm:  Introduction to workshop topics 
    • The two leaders from each breakout group, one statistics and one climate, will give a short talk (10 minutes each) 
  • 3:00 - 3:10 pm: Zoom break / coffee break  
  • 3:10 – 4:00 pm: First break out group discussion - what do we know 
  • 4:00 – 4:50 pm:  First opportunity for participants to give 3 minute short talks highlighting an aspect of their research that would benefit from an inter-disciplinary approach (see list below)
  • 4:50 – 5:00 pm: Day summary  
  • 6:30 pm – 8:00 pm: European Plenaries (link to abstract & bios
    • Phillipe Naveau, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
    • Jenny Wadsworth, Lancaster University  

Day 2: 24th November (Morning)  

  • 9:30 am – 11:00 am: American Plenaries. (link to abstract & bios)  
    • Christina Patricola, Iowa State University, USA
    • Mark Risser, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, California
  • 11:00 – 11:10 pm: Zoom break / Coffee break 
  • 11:10 – 11:30 pm: Recap of yesterday’s break out discussion from group leaders  
  • 11:30 – 12:30 pm:  Second break out room discussion - what are active research areas 
  • 12:30 – 1:00 pm: Lunch  
  • 1:00 pm – 1:45 pm: Second opportunity for participants to give 3 minute short talks highlighting an aspect of their research that would benefit from an inter-disciplinary  approach (see list below)
  • 1:45 – 2:00 pm: Day summary  

Day 3: 25th November (Morning)  

  • 9:30 – 10:00 am: Third opportunity for participants to give 3 minute short talks highlighting an aspect of their research that would benefit from an inter-disciplinary approach (see list below)
  • 10:00 – 10:20 am: Recap of yesterday’s break out discussion from group leaders 
  • 10:20 – 10:30 am: Zoom Break / Coffee Break  
  • 10:30 – 11:30 am: Third break out room discussion - what do we wish we knew 
  • 11:30 – 12:30 pm: Going forward discussion (Everyone) and workshop close 

List of three-minute talks

Day 1

  • Nina Nadine Ridder
  • Conrad Wasko
  • Pavel Krupskiy
  • Tony Rafter
  • Laleh Tafakori
  • Anthony Kiem
  • Edgar Santos-Fernandez
  • Mandy Freund
  • Meagan Carney

Day 2

  • Anthea Michalopoulos
  • Fiona Johnson
  • Katie Buchhorn
  • Carly Tozer
  • Dáithí Stone
  • Ziyang Lyu
  • Steefan Contractor
  • Andrew Dowdy
  • Ben Hague

Day 3

  • Zaved Khan
  • Andrew Zammit-Mangion
  • Suzanne Rosier
  • Thomas Mortlock
  • Acacia Pepler
  • Surendra Rauniyar 

Organising committee: 

Dr Kate Saunders, QUT 
Dr Boris Beranger, UNSW 
Dr Andrew King, The University of Melbourne
Dr Pandora Hope, Bureau of Meteorology 
Kimberley Reid, The University of Melbourne 
Gen Tolhurst, Bureau of Meteorology