Free Lecture: Spatial and spatio-temporal modelling of tropical diseases

Tim Macuga Past Event

Speaker: Paula Serrano (ACEMS, QUT)
Date: Friday 1 July 2016
Time: 3:00pm - 4:00pm
Location: H405, Gardens Point Campus, Queensland University of Technology
Type: Statistics and Operations Research Discipline
Following the seminar, light refreshments will be served in the School of Mathematical Sciences Sta Room (O614).

Abstract: Model-based geostatistics embeds classical geostatistics in a generalised linear modelling framework and o ers a mechanism to allow the estimation and prediction of spatially continuous phenomena, using data obtained at a limited number of spatial locations. This provides a exible and powerful approach to support rational decision making locally. In this talk I present two applications where model-based geostatistics has been used to inform health programmes. In the rst one, I use a spatial model to predict the prevalence of a mosquito-borne disease called lymphatic lariasis in sub-Saharan Africa. Lymphatic lariasis is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination and the prevalence map constructed can help guide control strategies. In the second study, I present a four-year prospective cohort study of slum residents in the city of Salvador, Brazil, where a rat-borne infectious disease called leptospirosis is endemic. I use a spatio-temporal modelling approach to understand the determinants of leptospirosis transmission that help identify intervention strategies for prevention.