ACEMS Science Week Event in Melbourne

Tim Macuga Past Event

To celebrate National Science Week, ACEMS is holding the following free public lecture at The University of Melbourne on the 19th of August.
The free public talk is called, "How do we calculate the probability of an extreme event?"
Engineers are routinely faced with the problem of designing infrastructure so that it is resistant to extreme conditions. In practice, this means that an engineer has to choose design specifications so that there is an acceptably small probability of the infrastructure being subject to environmental conditions that exceed the specifications. This leads to an interesting statistical question:
How do we calculate the probability of an extreme event?
Such an event may not appear anywhere in the historical record. So, at first sight, it seems as if we have no information on the probability of it occurring. Fortunately, there are some statistical results, grouped under the heading `extreme value theory' that give us a rational way to proceed in such situations.
In this talk, Prof Peter Taylor and Kate Saunders will give a layman's introduction to these results, with a discussion of their historical development, and illustrate the analysis with reference to some extreme rainfall events that have occurred on the eastern seaboard during the last few years.
• Time: 6-7pm, 19 August
• Venue: Russell Love Theatre (room M01), Richard Berry Building (160), The University of Melbourne